Based on my findings from researching empirical data from the Dow crash of 1929 and the NASDAQ dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, investors should immediately sell all of their holdings of mutual funds and all stock that are priced over $10 per share TODAY. This crash is the third category 5 hurricane in last 90 years and the 2008 crash was not one of the three. See also, my March 6, 2020, “US stock market to decline by another 22% by Easter” article.
My expertise is in researching the empirical data on the significant anomalies that I have discovered which occur in the markets. What I do is no different than how hurricane forecasting evolved. Until there were airplanes which could fly into the eyes of hurricanes to measure its barometric pressure it was impossible to predict a category 5 or even a category 1.
My research on Enron’s empirical financial data after its spectacular crash in 2001 enabled me to predict the collapses of Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. My research on the empirical data of multiple market crashes (category 2 hurricanes) enabled me to predict the Brexit crash. The crash predictive algorithm that I developed which predicted the Brexit crash was converted into an algorithm that now powers the Bull & Bear Tracker. Watch 2:50 video about my various crash predictions and rallies off of market bottoms throughout my 43-year career.
After the indices of four of the world’s developed countries peaked on February 19, 2020, and on February 20th began their prompt declines of more than 10% by the end of February, I buried myself in the empirical data of prior crashes. What I discovered is that the behavior for the crash of 2020, is almost identical to the Dow 1929 crash and the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble in 2000. The bottom line is that both of those crashes and the crash of 2020 are Category 5 hurricanes.
Instead of barometric pressure my data measures the metrics for emotions and especially for fear and greed which has not and will never change. The good news is that similar to a hurricane forecaster, I have the empirical data to predict when the storm will peter out and the damage that it will cause.
The reason why all holdings other than penny stocks in US and Canadian should be liquidated immediately is because all of the indices are near their 17% declines from their 2020 high levels. The 17% decline threshold is significant. After the NASDAQ had also declined by a minimum of 34% within a month after its 2000 crash began, there was a rally that would have enabled investors to get out within 17% of its all-time high.
Investors should also liquidate their holdings in Germany and Japan immediately. After the market in 1929 had declined by a minimum of 34%, there was a rally that could have enabled investors to get out within 23% of the all-time high. NASDAQ, Japan’s Nikkei and Germany’s DAX are below their 17% thresholds as depicted in the grey shaded areas in the table below and are in danger of falling below the lower threshold.
After both of the intermediate rallies peaked, the Dow and NASDAQ resumed their declines. On their first year after crash began anniversaries’ the Dow had declined by 52% and the NASDAQ by 62%.
Do not be tempted to hold on or wait for a market rally. The crash of 2008/2009 was not even a category 4 hurricane. The reason why the market recovered quickly in 2009 was because 2009 was at the end of an eight-year secular bear which began in 2000. The 1929, 2000 and 2020 crashes all occurred at the end of and at the peaks of secular bulls.
My prediction is that the S&P 500’s secular bull market which began in March 2009 ended on February 19, 2020. The ninth secular bear since 1802 began on February 20th. Based on the peaks of the last three secular bull markets as compared to the troughs of the of the three most recent secular bears, the S&P 500 could decline by an additional 47% to 80% from its March 6, 2020 close.
The video of my “Secular Bulls & Bears: Each requires different investing strategies” workshop at the February 2020 Orlando Money Show is highly recommended. The educational video explains secular bulls and bears and includes strategies to protect assets during secular bear markets and recessions, etc.
A strategy to liquidate all mutual fund holdings and the majority of all stock holdings should be deployed immediately. Time is of the essence. To understand why diversification does not work and why penny and low-priced stocks should be held watch Money Show workshop video.
To maximize the liquidation amounts a registered investment advisor (RIA) who has been vetted by BullsNBears.com should be utilized. The advisor must have the expertise to technically trade the market so that higher liquidation prices can be obtained. Since any referred RIA will be able to utilize the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals to manage a portion of a portfolio, losses could quickly be recouped. It’s because the Bull & Bear Tracker produces significant profits in declining and in volatile markets. As of today’s March 9th, open, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s Thursday March 5th signal was up by 20%. Read the March 9th “Why the Bull & Bear Tracker exited the market on March 3rd”, article.
To be referred to an advisor click here.
The statistics in the tables below will be covered in my future articles and reports. Its urgent that this article be published. Please share this with your friends and family.