The Bear Trader, a spinoff from the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT), has officially replaced its parent as the sender of the text messaged red and green signal changes to subscribers who trade S&P 500 and Dow 30 composite long and short ETFs. For subscribers to be able to enter the orders to trade the signals in a more timely fashion the number of signals were reduced and all intraday signals were eliminated. 100% of Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals are exclusively available through a registered investment advisor.
Bear Trader is primarily a market index short ETF trend trading algorithm. Its mission is to enable its subscribers to produce minimum aggregate unleveraged trading gains of 100% during a declining market which has been forecasted by the SCPA forecasting algorithm to not reach its final bottom until the fourth quarter of 2022.
Bear Trader was conceived on March 3, 2020 when the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) suspended its texts to subscribers. The concern was that non-professional subscribers might not be able to follow the BBT’s explicit signal instructions in a timely manner and thus incur losses. Note. Since February 2020 the Bull & Bear Tracker’s gains have increased and risk has decreased. Click here for the latest monthly track record.
Subsequent to the suspension of the alerts, the following happened during March 2020:
- The Secular Bull Market that began in 2009 ended and was replaced by a Secular Bear Market.
- There were 23 signal changes for the month vs. an average of five per month historically.
- Intraday (9:31am-3:00 pm EST) signal changes increased to over 40% as compared to less than 20% historically.
- CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to its highest level since October 2008.
According to an April 2020 Bull & Bear Tracker subscriber survey:
- A majority of the subscribers do not trade all of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals. This undermines a subscriber’s performance since the success ratio for all of BBT’s signals has ranged from 55% to 63% since inception. A cherry picker can-not leverage the BBT’s industry high ratio for percentage of winning versus losing signals.
- Traders take profits prematurely. The BBT’s March 23-25 signals to buy and sell the SPY and the SPXL netted gains of 14.7% and 44.3% respectively. However, 60% of the SPXL traders made less than 30% and the same percentage of SPY traders made less than 10%. Not a single trader of the SPXL had a gain of 40% and for the SPY 13%. The taking of a small profit instead of waiting for a much larger profit skews the overall returns.
Due to the above March and April issues, there was no choice but to substantially reduce the number of text-messaged signal changes. The time of day for the alerts to be sent also needed structuring. The following are the changes for subscriber alerts:
- Opening trade alerts for both red and green signal changes will not be sent during periods of escalating volatility.
- All of BBT’s red alerts to trade inverse or short index ETFs including the SH, SPXS, DOG and SDOW are sent during qualifying periods.
- BBT’s green signal alerts to trade long index ETFs including the SPY and SPXL, etc., will be sent at only major market bottoms.
- Signals are no longer sent intraday. All alerts will be sent prior to 9:30AM EST market open or from 3:00PM to 4:00PM EST.
The above policy changes for the sending of the red and green signal alerts is projected to reduce the Bear Trader’s signal quantity by at least 45%. The adding of the two windows for subscribers to expect potential signal changes increases the probability for success.
Even with the above changes the Bear Trader’s red signals are fully capable of consistently producing monthly gains and outperforming the S&P 500. From March 3 to May 22, 2020; the Bull & Bear Tracker’s 37 core signal changes generated a gain of 47.5%. The 19 red alerts accounted for almost half (22.1%) of the gain. The success ratio of the red signals was 63%.
The table below depicts the performance for the BBT’s seven signals that were sent to aggressive and conservative traders during the Bear Trader’s development period. They constitute the Bear Trader’s track record from March 3, 2020 to May 22, 2020.
To comprehend the difference between the published signals and the BBT’s core signals from which the published or text messaged signals are derived click here: “Bull & Bear Tracker’s core signals outperform S&P 500 for 7 out of 8 months”.
The SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses), a second proprietary algorithm, significantly increases the probability for Bear Trader subscribers to have aggregate gains of 100% during the market’s journey to its final Q4 2022 bottom. The SCPA (which boasts the same developer as the Bull & Bear Tracker’s algorithm) forecasts post-crash events.
The table below contains the SCPA’s key forecasts for the markets of 13 of the world’s 14 largest GDP countries, including the US, through the fourth quarter of 2022. In lockstep fashion on February 21, 2020; the markets for all of the countries began to crash and descend to declines of 79% to 89% below their all-time or multi-year 2020 highs.
The SCPA’s 500% short/long trading gains forecast in the table above is based on its statistical analyses of the peaks and troughs for the Dow Jones’ 32-month 1929-1932 and the NASDAQ’s 30-month 2000-2002 periods.
All the 2020 crashes have the same genealogy as the 1929 and 2000 crashes. The two charts below depict that the Dow Jones 1929 and NASDAQ 2000 crashes provided short-sellers with an opportunity to generate gains in excess of 300%.
The SCPA is forecasting an aggregate gain of 300% for savvy short sellers who short at market peaks and cover at the valleys through the fourth quarter of 2022. Since the 2020 crashes began the Bull & Bear Tracker’s monthly gains have been averaging 15%. Therefore, the probability is high for a disciplined Bear Trader subscriber to achieve an aggregate gain of 100% through the end of 2020.
The 30 to 32-month post-crash period through Q4 2022 is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors who are at least 50 years old. Another market crash which has the same genealogy as the crashes of 1929, 2000 and 2020 will not occur again until 2040; at the earliest. The crash of such magnitude might not occur until the next century.
The reason why this is so is because it takes decades for most who experienced such a crash to have passed on, leaving only those investors without experiential knowledge of the risks and no one left to see and heed warning signals.
Savvy investors are well-advised to consider engaging a registered investment advisor to trade all of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals. Click below to be referred to a registered investment advisor.
The Bear Trader is the best alternative if a registered investment advisor cannot be engaged. Click below to register to be alerted when the Bear Trader becomes available.
The Bull & Bear Tracker, along with the Bear Trader, rank among the least risky of all investing strategies during volatile market and economic conditions. Since the algorithms powering the Bull & Bear Tracker as well as the SCPA were developed from researching 100 years of empirical data, they provide not only the wisdom but also the vision to prevail. Investors who are looking to feel safe and secure can rely on the Bull & Bear Tracker and SCPA algorithms.